2024 Lake Erie Algal Bloom Forecast

Jun 28, 2024

NOAA Predicts Mildly Severe Algal Bloom for 2024

By Farms.com

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2024 Lake Erie algal bloom.

The bloom is expected to have a severity index of 5 on a scale of 1 to 10. This prediction is based on multiple models that take into account phosphorus loading into the lake during spring and early summer.

Due to a wet weather pattern in early spring, water flow in the Western Lake Erie Basin was higher than normal in March and April. As a result, NOAA forecasts a "mildly severe" algal bloom.

Jordan Hoewischer, director of water quality research with the Ohio Farm Bureau, noted the importance of the timing of spring rains and nutrient applications.

"Heavier spring rains occurred before nutrients were applied to fields for the 2024 growing season," Hoewischer explained. He emphasized the need to monitor the bloom throughout the summer to understand the impact of nutrient loads.

Hoewischer highlighted the role of cover crops, promoted through the H2Ohio program, in maintaining soil and nutrient stability. The latest data from the Lake Erie Commission shows a downward trend in dissolved reactive phosphorus loading since 2015.

Hoewischer praised Ohio agriculture's efforts in reducing nutrient loss despite increasing rainfall events. He urged farmers to work with local Soil & Water districts and explore H2Ohio options to protect both soil and water quality.

The expansion of the H2Ohio initiative and the Ohio Agriculture Conservation Initiative certification program are helping farmers adopt better nutrient management practices. These efforts aim to improve water quality across Ohio.

NOAA will release the final statistics for the 2024 algal bloom in September.

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.