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Canola, soybeans and oat stocks down compared to 2016, says Stats Canada

Wheat, corn for grain and barley stocks rose

By Diego Flammini
Assistant Editor, North American Content
Farms.com

Total 2017 stocks of canola, soybeans and oats are down when compared to March 31, 2016, according to a new report from Stats Canada.

The March Farm Survey collected information from 11,600 farmers between March 16 and 31.

Total wheat stocks were at 16.6 million metric tonnes on March 31 of this year, up 15.5 per cent from March 31, 2016, according to the information released May 5.

In Saskatchewan, stock levels were up by 11.1 per cent to 5.9 million tonnes, and wheat stocks in Alberta jumped by 26.9 per cent to 4.2 million tonnes.

Canola
Canola stocks were down by 23.3 per cent on March 31, to 6.6 million tonnes, when compared to data from 2016. On-farm stocks in Saskatchewan fell by 32.1 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes, and farm stocks in Alberta decreased by 24.5 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes.

Corn for grain
Compared to information from 2016, grain corn stocks were up by 7.7 per cent as of March 31, 2017, totaling 8.4 million tonnes. Farm stocks in Quebec jumped by 6.2 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes.

Soybeans
Soybean stocks fell by 4.2 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes. On-farm stocks dropped by 19.6 per cent to 930,000 tonnes. In Ontario, on-farm stocks decreased by 33.8 per cent to 460,000 tonnes.

Barley and oats
Total barley stocks increased by 22.6 per cent to 4.6 million tonnes as of March 31, which is a 6.8 per cent increase from data in 2016. Farm stocks rose by 24.2 per cent to 4.3 million tonnes.

Oat stocks decreased by 8.5 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes.


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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.