Cold, wet start may have farmers switching acres

Apr 25, 2013

StatsCan 2013 planting intentions aborted by weather

The Statistics Canada seeding intentions report may not be farmers’ intentions. Wacky cold, wet weather will likely mean that farmers may have to switch some acres. “…What the farmer was saying end of March and what they are saying now are two different things,” says Moe Agostino, Farms.com risk management consultant.

Agostino explains that going into this report a lot of growers were opting for more wheat versus canola, largely due to yield and disease issues from last year and notes that cost of production was a little higher than wheat. The number came in bigger than what the market was expecting. The report was overall bearish for wheat and bullish for canola. Agostino notes that canola ending stalks remain tight and the demand remains strong. “There is some concern that if we don’t get those acres in …we could have a very tight crop again this year and prices could explode to the upside,” explains Agostino. The report is bullish for canola, barley and soybeans as numbers came in below expectations, but was bearish for wheat, oats and corn.

It looks like a late, wet planting season for farmers, but Agostino reminds farmers that they were spoiled last year with an early planting season and reminds producers to remain optimistic, recalling 2009 when planting was delayed and wet and we ended up with a 164.7 yield on corn. “Markets don’t react to late planting seasons…because when it’s late it means it’s wet…rain makes grain,” said Agostino.

The full report can be read here on Statistics Canada website.

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