Exposing Trade Barriers - Impacts on U.S. Agriculture

Apr 09, 2024

By Farms.com

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has recently published the 2023 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, an essential tool for understanding the landscape of international trade.

This comprehensive report delves into the myriad barriers that hinder the export of U.S. goods and services, direct investments abroad, and electronic commerce, particularly emphasizing the agricultural sector.

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, and the report outlines several impediments that challenge this sector, including:

Cumbersome food facility registration requirements, making market entry more difficult.
The application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures that diverge from scientific principles.
Non-transparent and burdensome import licensing requirements.
Technical barriers such as overly restrictive standards, labeling requirements, and technical regulations.
A general lack of adherence to international science- and risk-based standards across various markets.

Noteworthy examples highlighted in the report include Indonesia's strict facility registration for dairy and meat products, Mexico's approach to agricultural biotechnology, the EU's policies on crop protection technologies, and China's deviation from global scientific standards.

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is closely monitoring these developments. Recognizing the profound impact of these barriers on the U.S. pork industry, the NPPC is gearing up to advocate for the elimination of both tariff and non-tariff barriers through comprehensive trade agreements.

The Council underscores the significance of these efforts in bolstering U.S. pork exports, which have notably contributed to the nation's economy with a record $8.2 billion in exports last year, reaching over 100 countries.

Given the extensive reach of the U.S. agricultural exports—encompassing 99% of goods and 66% of services to 64 key markets—the implications of these trade barriers are profound. They not only affect the agricultural sector but also the wider U.S. economy, supporting approximately 1 million American jobs.

The NTE Report, published annually since 1985, continues to be a critical resource in identifying and addressing these obstacles, with the goal of fostering fair and equitable trade practices that can enhance the prosperity of U.S. agriculture and the overall economy.

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.