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Food demand sends crop prices up

Food demand sends crop prices up

Corn, soybeans and wheat prices showed gains Friday morning

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Cash crop prices increased Friday morning as consumers purchase more food for self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

May futures for corn, soybeans and wheat were all up by 10, eight and 11 cents per bushel, respectively, as of 10:30 a.m. ET Friday. Cattle futures were also close to being limit up.

Macro markets like the Dow Jones are showing some signs of stable activity, which is affecting the ag commodity markets, said Abhinesh Gopal, a commodity analyst with Farms.com Risk Management.

“There seem to be a few positive influences,” he said. “Much of the world is staying at home, leading to more immediate demand for food. Wheat gets a direct boost due to strong demand for pasta and baked goods.”

Another factor contributing to the Friday rally is a boost in export interest for U.S. grains.

Previous drops in crop prices paired with purchases from China are supporting the markets, Gopal said.

“The USDA reported 340,000 metric tons (MT) of hard red winter wheat sold to China this morning,” he said. “Exports are boosting corn as well, as the USDA confirmed the Chinese bought 756,000 MT of U.S. old-crop corn.”

The U.S. dollar is performing well. But that could have an adverse effect on exports because they become more expensive.

Gopal warned, however, that the prices could drop again if the coronavirus continues to spread.

“It’s entirely possible and true for all markets,” he said. “The markets will be run by fear and uncertainty, especially when fear affects macro markets and they sell off. We are still a ways away from being out of the woods yet.”


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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.