Continued increase in the production and crushings of oils expected
This week there are fivekey reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of September 2. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Devin Lashley
1. The USDA Oilseeds Crushings Production, Consumption, and Stocks Report comes out Tuesday, September 3, 2024, and will likely show a continued increase in the production and crushings of oils. According to NOPA U.S. soybean crush rose by 4 percent in July 2024 compared to the previous month, while soybean oil stocks saw a decline.
If we are following the trend of NOPA which accounts for 94 percent of all U.S. Soybean crushing, it's likely the oilseeds crushings report will say something similar.
2. The U.S. Employment Report comes out Friday, September 6, 2024, and will likely show a modest gain with the market expecting a 175,000-job gain and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate.
Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise both monthly and annually. A weak report might lead to a 50-basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while a stronger report could result in a 25-basis point reduction.
3. The Australian ABARES Crop Report comes out Tuesday, September 3, 2024 and will likely show continued good news for Australian crops. With the last crop report forecasting winter crop production to rise by 9 percent to 51.3 million tons (wheat at 31 mmt) in 2024–25, surpassing the 10-year average of 47 million tons and making it the fifth highest on record. This trend will likely continue as Australia has had amazing weather, defying expectations and this is likely not to break anytime soon.
4. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Tuesday, September 3, 2024 and will likely show continued minor decreases in crop quality, as it is normal for this time of the year as major growing regions across the U.S. continue to dry out. That being said, this is not a cause for concern as crop quality for all major crops are well above last year's levels.
5. The U.S. Export Sales Report comes out Friday, September 6, 2024 (due to the Labor Day holiday) and will likely show continued slow demand for U.S. pork and increasing demand for U.S. soybeans. China has finally started buying U.S. soybeans, albeit at a much smaller quantity than last year. On the flip side, demand for U.S. pork has been sparse at best so any improvements would be a welcome surprise.
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