By Jean-Paul MacDonald
Farms.com
Aimpoint Research, a worldwide intelligence company, produced the paper titled "A Future Without Glyphosate" on behalf of Bayer. It details the effects that a world without glyphosate might have. To appreciate the intricate effects of glyphosate on agriculture and to imagine a world without it, the study used economic modelling, interviews, and military wargaming tactics.
The report highlights the following potential outcomes if glyphosate were no longer accessible:
1. Increased Tillage and Reduced Cover Crops: U.S. agriculture would experience a rise in tillage practices and a decrease in the implementation of cover crops. This could result in the release of up to 34 million tons of CO2, equivalent to the emissions produced by 6.8 million cars or the deforestation of nearly 36.5 million acres of forests.
2. Higher Input Costs for Farmers: The limited supply and higher prices of alternative products would lead to 2-2.5 times increase in input costs for farmers. Smaller farms would be disproportionately affected by this cost escalation.
3. Escalation in Production Costs: The increased reliance on tillage practices due to the absence of glyphosate would add over $1.9 billion to production costs.
4. Inflationary Pressure on Food Prices: The heightened production costs would exert long-term inflationary pressure on food prices, impacting consumers and potentially reducing affordability.
The report states that U.S. agriculture, particularly the corn industry, would become less competitive on a global scale in the absence of glyphosate. While alternative solutions may emerge over time, their development would be hampered by regulatory uncertainties and require significant investments.
Gregg Doud, the chief economist at Aimpoint Research, emphasizes that glyphosate is currently an essential tool in modern agriculture, contributing to cost reduction and the promotion of conservation practices. The report confirms the substantial economic cost to farmers and warns about the rapid release of greenhouse gases, which could reverse decades of conservation and sustainability progress.
The report underscores the extensive ripple effects that would arise from the loss of glyphosate. Being the most widely used herbicide in the U.S. and one of the most extensively studied chemistries globally, glyphosate has garnered support from over 50 prominent agricultural groups in court battles over its registration.
The report affirms the significant implications of a world without glyphosate, emphasizing its crucial role in modern agriculture and the challenges that would arise in its absence.