The Threat of African Swine Fever to the U.S. Economy?

Jul 18, 2023

Researchers from North Carolina State University have delved into the risks and potential impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the southeastern U.S. Utilizing a sophisticated computer model, they have shed light on the transmission routes and evaluated the effectiveness of existing response plans, providing valuable insights into the country's readiness to combat this highly contagious swine disease.

ASF poses a significant threat to pigs, with a mortality rate that can reach a devastating 100%. Complicating matters further, infected pigs may not exhibit symptoms before succumbing to the disease, creating opportunities for the virus to silently spread. The projected cost of a potential ASF outbreak in the U.S. has been estimated at a staggering $80 billion.

The researchers employed an epidemiological model called PigSpread, which meticulously examined six different transmission routes, including between-farm swine movements, vehicle movements, and local spread. Drawing from a vast dataset of 2,294 swine farms in the southeastern U.S., the model captured the complexity of ASF transmission dynamics.

Their simulations revealed that between-farm movements accounted for a substantial 71% of disease transmissions, with local spread and vehicular transmission contributing approximately 14% each. Remarkably, vehicular transmission emerged as a crucial route for disease spread, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of this aspect.

Implementing a combination of control strategies, including quarantine, depopulation, movement restrictions, contact tracing, and enhanced surveillance, exhibited a positive impact in curbing the outbreak. Simulations incorporating these interventions demonstrated an average reduction of up to 79% in secondary infections within the 140-day timeframe. Encouragingly, approximately 29% of simulations with all control strategies implemented showed no further affected farms during that period.

Despite these promising results, the researchers caution that more investigations are required to refine control measures and fully comprehend the scope of effective intervention. Furthermore, they highlight that the duration of an epidemic may surpass the 140-day timeframe, underscoring the need for sustained efforts and a long-term approach to tackling ASF.

Video: Ask A Farmer: How are broiler chickens raised in Canada?

As more and more Canadians become removed from farms and ranches, many people have questions about how animals are being raised on Canadian farms. Tiffany Martinka is active on social media and has made a point of sharing how their family farm takes care of their chickens. In this podcast, Tiffany explains the audited programs that all Canadian farmers must follow and describes how this system of raising chickens is unique in a global setting.

The main points of this podcast include:

What it is like on a broiler chicken farm and the process that chicken farmers go through.

The different programs that farmers must follow, and be audited on, to be licensed to sell broiler chicken in Canada.

The full circle of practices on Tiffany’s family farm, including growing their own feed for chickens, then recycling the manure back onto the fields to grow future crops.