The USDA Quandary

Jul 19, 2023

Traders in the grain trade industry are raising concerns and challenging the reliability of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports. These dissenting voices are deviating from the market consensus, expressing doubts about the accuracy of USDA data.

In recent times, it has been customary to avoid trading against USDA reports, as they reflect the collective market opinion. However, a growing number of traders are questioning the credibility of USDA's findings. Some suggest that the agency may be manipulating numbers or reaching predetermined conclusions. In the world of commodities trading, uncertainties persist, and traders bear the risks associated with their positions.

One area of contention is the soybean market. Traders cast doubt on USDA's projection of a 300-million-bushel carryout by year-end, arguing that the actual figure may be closer to 200 million bushels. This skepticism arises from concerns about USDA's yield estimate for this year's crop, given early development challenges and the ongoing drought. While recent rainfall has provided some relief, traders remain ready to bet on reduced yields.

In a surprising departure from their usual approach, USDA revised down the yield estimate in their July report to 177.5 bushels per acre, a record high. This adjustment caught many traders off guard, as USDA rarely changes yield projections in July. The discrepancy between USDA's estimate and the trade average of 176.1 bushels per acre further highlights the divide between market sentiment and official reports.

Amidst this uncertainty, the corn market faces its own challenges. Conversations with Midwest producers reveal mixed sentiments, as they acknowledge the positive impact of recent rainfall on crop conditions but express doubts about achieving trend-line yields due to previous drought and hail damage. Estimating crop size becomes increasingly complex due to various weather-related factors.

While USDA encounters criticism, particularly from skeptical farmers, their role in providing market information is a complex and demanding task. The market, however, continues to analyze the situation independently, seeking to navigate the discrepancies between USDA reports and traders' perceptions.

Video: The 15-Year Bet Behind Every New Variety!

Canada is trying to decide how much agricultural research capacity it can afford to lose. Brian Rossnagel believes the better question is whether the country can afford to rebuild it.

The longtime barley and oat breeder makes the case with a simple fact about his profession: the consequences of today’s decisions may not become visible for 10 or 15 years.

“Pick the right parents. That’s the biggest thing,” Rossnagel says. “If you pick the wrong parents, you’re not going to get anywhere—and you don’t know that until 10 years, 15 years later.”

That warning carries particular weight as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada moves to reduce spending and streamline parts of its science operations. The department’s 2026–27 plan anticipates the loss of approximately 665 positions by 2028–29 and says some research will be reduced where capacity exists in academia or industry. AAFC says the changes will make its science operations more cost-effective over the long term.

For Canada’s seed industry, Rossnagel’s career illustrates what is at stake.

This fall, the retired University of Saskatchewan breeder will be inducted into the Canadian Agricultural Hall of Fame. During his 35-year career at the Crop Development Centre, he helped develop more than 100 barley and oat varieties, including CDC Austenson—one of Western Canada’s most widely grown feed barleys. His induction recognizes not only those varieties, but the collaboration and research system that made them possible.

Rossnagel is quick to emphasize that none of it was the work of one person.

“The first thing I thought about was all the other people who contributed to whatever success I and my program had over the years,” he says. “We know that it’s not an individual who does this. It’s a group—a team.”

That team extends well beyond the breeder whose name appears beside a variety. It includes technicians, pathologists, quality specialists, statisticians, regional testing sites, seed growers and industry partners. It also includes the breeders who came before and those who will carry the germplasm forward.

CDC Fraser barley, for example, moved through three breeding careers. Its parents came from Brian Harvey’s program. Rossnagel advanced the material after Harvey retired, and Aaron Beattie later guided it through registration and release.

That kind of handoff is normal in plant breeding. The person who makes the original cross may never see the resulting variety reach farmers.

It also explains why lost research capacity cannot simply be switched back on when budgets improve.

“If you shut it off, it’s very, very difficult—and particularly costly—to start it up again,” Rossnagel says. “If you have to start from scratch, it’s going to be at least 10 years before anybody notices whether you’re getting anything done or not.”

The concern is not simply how many experimental lines Canada can process. Modern equipment, statistical tools and genetic technologies allow today’s breeding programs to evaluate tens of thousands of lines—far more than Rossnagel could handle when he entered the field in the early 1970s.

But efficiency and automation do not generate every idea.

“If you pare back down, and instead of having six or seven individual scientists concentrating on wheat breeding, you go down and say three people could handle all this, well, that’s half the ideas gone,” he says. “Particularly if you happen to lose the three people who had the really neat and innovative ideas, boy, that’s a problem.”

It is a timely distinction for Canadian agriculture. Consolidating programs may preserve the volume of material moving through a system, at least initially. It may not preserve the diversity of thinking, regional knowledge or willingness to pursue unconventional crosses.

That regional knowledge matters because Canadian agriculture is not one uniform production environment. A variety suited to southern Alberta may face different disease, moisture and maturity pressures than one grown in Manitoba, Ontario or Atlantic Canada.

“Agriculture is applied biology,” Rossnagel says. “Biology, all around the Earth, moves from the poles to the equator. It does not move from Newfoundland to B.C. like politics do.”