Key events to watch in commodity marketing next week!
Farms.com is pleased to share a new column for the summer of 2023 which tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article will shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
- USDA’s weekly crop progress report will be released on Monday, June 12th. Eyes will be on crop conditions, especially for corn and soybeans. Across the U.S., just 62% of soybeans were rated good to excellent. This is the lowest rating for this time of year since 2002. More specifically, Illinois, last years second largest corn producer is rated at just 50% good to excellent in corn, the lowest since 2014. With another dry week look for a further drop in crop conditions ahead of some rains this weekend and into next week but these rains may only save the crop does not make them. We need a lot more timely rains to get anywhere near a U.S. corn trendline yield of 181.4 bpa! Nor only is the framer stressing but so is the corn!
- Amongst the reports that will be released next week are the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday, June 15th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, June 14th, and the USDA grains inspections report on Monday, June 12th. All eyes will be on the ethanol data with hopes that there will be continued momentum after a strong report. Ethanol production reached its highest level in nearly six months, and inventories increased during the seven-day period ending on June 2nd. The EIA report stated that the average daily production of ethanol rose to 1.036 million barrels, up from 1.004 million barrels the previous week. This production level represents the highest recorded since the week ending on December 9.
- Wildfires continue to rage on in Canada and many still remain out of control. As fires continue to burn, more sunlight is being blocked by smoke that accumulates in the atmosphere. However, according to Jeff Carfagno, a Weather Channel analyst, a change in the weather pattern over the weekend will shift the direction of wind and clear the sky. This is good news for emerging and growing crops that have had less than ideal levels of sunlight over the past week.
- On June 15th the U.S. EPA is widely anticipated to announce the renewable biodiesel targets. Last November they disappointed markets suggesting that the growth was less than many are expecting. But the trade is hoping for an increase since November and could be bullish for soyoil and soybean futures.
- According to a Reuters poll of economists, it is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points on June 15 and again in July. The U.S. Fed is also expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on June 15th of next week but Mays U.S. CPI report due out on June 13th may have a say in what Powell does. The ECB is expected to pause for the remainder of the year due to persistent inflationary pressures. Over the past year, the ECB has already implemented a total of 375 basis points of rate hikes. This comes after the Bank of Canada raised its interest rates by 25 basis points on June 7th after pausing for 2 months.
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