Three quarters of the HRW crop has been planted
This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 29, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
1. USDA’s Crop Progress report will be released as per its usual schedule on Monday, October 30th. The recent report showed a continuation of soybean harvest coming in much further ahead than corn. Corn harvest was reported as being 59% complete, 14% higher than last week, and 5% higher than the 5-year average. Soybeans came in at 76% harvested, also 14% higher than last week, and 9% higher than the 5-year average. Winter wheat planting progress came in at 77%, below the trade’s expectations of 79% and the 5-year average of 78%.
2. Next week's reports include the USDA grains inspected for export on Monday, October 30th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, November 1st, and the weekly export sales report on Thursday, November 2nd. This week’s export sales report was very good as corn sales reached over 1.35 mmt, 53% higher than last week and 22% higher than the previous 4-week average. Soybean sales continue to be strong coming in above 1.37 mmt, up just 1% from last week, but 43% above the 4-week average. China was the number one buyer of U.S. soybeans, while Mexico bought the most corn. The industry needs 20 million bushels of U.S. soybeans and 28.1 million bushels of U.S. corn each week to meet USDA targets.
3. The U.S. drought monitor map was relatively unchanged overall as 57.8% of crops remain in at least D0 drought, an increase of 1.45% from last week.
4. The focus now turns to HRW wheat areas as over three quarters of the crop has been planted. The map showed 49% of the crop in at least D1 drought compared to 48% last week, but nowhere near last year's 74% at this time. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is dry throughout the U.S. with the exception of the northwestern parts of the country. We may see an increase in the amount of winter wheat facing drought conditions when the map is updated next week on November 2nd.
5. The U.S. Economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter of the year, with GDP rising 4.9% versus an expected 4.7%. The U.S. Fed’s will hold a meeting on October 31st-to November 1st to discuss rates, but the Fed’s do not want the economy to be growing too fast as it leads to higher inflation. Thus, Farms.com Risk Management is predicting there is a 1 in 20 chance that they will raise interest rates in an effort to slow the growth of the economy.
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