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U.S. crop prices react to weather woes

Drought forecasts drive corn and soybean surge

By Farms.com

Amid fluctuating market conditions, corn and soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade aiming for a 4% gain, largely propelled by dry weather predictions in the U.S. Midwest recently. This weather pattern has raised alarms about potential yield reductions, elevating market concerns and investor speculation.

Corn slightly increased by 0.1% to $4.21 a bushel, and soybeans edged down by 0.1% to $10.78-1/4 a bushel. Wheat prices, however, experienced a minor rise of 0.1% to $5.38-1/4 a bushel, though they remain nearly 1% lower than last week's close, reflecting the well-supplied global markets from ongoing northern hemisphere harvests.

The speculation and pricing are supported by recent U.S. export sales figures, where soybeans and corn both exceeded expectations, indicating strong international demand.

This is juxtaposed with global agricultural trends where conditions in other major producing regions like Ukraine and Romania are similarly experiencing dry spells, potentially affecting their corn outputs.

While the focus remains intensely on the U.S. markets due to immediate weather concerns, the broader global backdrop also continues to influence the grains market, especially wheat, where varying harvest results from key regions are being closely monitored.

These market dynamics underscore the interconnectedness of global agricultural economies and the significant impact of climatic conditions on agricultural productivity and trading patterns.

 


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.