USDA WASDE report, nothing really changed

Jun 12, 2013

USDA WASDE report, nothing really changed

There were no surprises in today’s June 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The initial reaction was bearish for corn and wheat, and neutral to friendly for soybeans.

The following are some highlights:

Corn:

Old crop ending stock moved higher from 759 million to 769 million. Exports were lowered by 50 million. New crop ending stalks lowered to 1.949 billion from previous estimates of 2.004 billion.

Wheat:

U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised. Beginning stocks are higher with a 15 million bushel reduction in 2012/12 exports. Production for 2013/14 is up 23 million bushels.

Soybeans:

U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2013/14 are unchanged from May. Soybean imports are raised 5 million bushels to 25 million. Soybean exports for 2013/14 were reduced by 20 million bushes to 1.33 billion bushels. Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 490.8 million tons, down 0.5 million from May.

The market will be watching for the June 28^th report next. The full report can be found here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

Video: Did Bears Win Thanksgiving, Will Bulls Get Christmas?

Did the bears win Thanksgiving (although this week had green on the screen), and will the bulls get Christmas? Bears won thanksgiving thanks to a USDA Nov crop report dud that stalled the bullish grain momentum for a brief period. But a bullish lower yield surprise in the Dec crop report could reignite the rally.
2026 U.S. winter wheat planting is nearly complete at 97% while crop conditions improved by 3 points to 48% good-to-excellent. US corn & soybean harvest is complete.
High corn demand, which is off the chart, and more Chinese soybean demand could support a Christmas rally.
Nasdaq had it’s worst November since 2011.
A U.S. Fed rate cut in December will help fund flow and sentiment.
Bitcoin held a long-term support at 80,000 and that's positive for fund flow and sentiment. It should help stock prices and Ag as we go into December.
Fertilizer prices continue to climb as we look ahead to 2026. Farmers may rely more on the nutrients that they already have in their soils.
South American Weather remains critical as the soybean reproductive stage starts from late Nov to late Feb depending on planting date.
Will a Russia-Ukraine peace deal happen by year-end?
CFTC data as of showed more managed money fund sell-off as of October 14th.