Market Movers for The Week of March 30th, 2025
By Aleah Harle
Farms.com Risk Management Intern
Key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets this week. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
1. The USDA March Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is set to be released on March 31, tracking inventories of key grains. The most recent report showed corn stocks at 12.074 billion bushels, soybeans at 3.100 billion, and wheat at 1.570 billion.
The upcoming release is expected to show lower-than-anticipated ending stocks for corn, but higher for soybeans and wheat. Predictions for the new report include corn stocks at 8.2 billion bushels (with a trade range of 8.05 - 8.311 billion), soybeans at 1.901 billion (trade range of 1.823 - 2.015 billion), and wheat at 1.215 billion (trade range of 1.125 - 1.252 billion).
2. The annual USDA U.S. Prospective Plantings Report is set to be released on March 31. The survey was taken in the first 2-weeks of March and the whisper number on U.S. 2025 corn acres is well above the trade average guess at 94.36 at 96 million acres. The last time we planted more than this was in 2013 at 97.3 million acres!
The U.S. corn expected trade range is 92.5 - 96.6 million, soybeans at 83.762 million acres (trade range of 82.5 - 85.5 million), and wheat at 46.475 million acres (trade range of 45.4 - 47.815 million). Everything points to more corn acres and economics say spend money to breakeven or make some money and that is in corn.
The U.S. farmer will also play the insurance game as it pays better in corn than any other crop. U.S. soybean acres could also come in below 82.,5 and is supportive prices near-term, but an escalating U.S. global tariff war on April 2nd (See below) may more than offset!
3. April 2, now being referred to as "Liberation Day," is expected to bring a new round of tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances. While initially anticipated to include broad tariffs, recent statements from Trump suggest a more flexible approach, with him indicating he may be "more lenient than reciprocal."
Additionally, exemptions on the existing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire, adding further uncertainty to trade relations. However, analysts note the challenges of implementing a true one-to-one reciprocal tariff system, leaving the full scope of the policies for April 2nd still unclear.
President Trump is trying to level the playing field in global trade. As of March 1, G20 economies had 4,650 import restrictions in place +75% since 2016, up tenfold from 2008, while the U.S. average tariff rate was up 8.4% in the same period matching levels from 1946!
4. The next Drought Monitor update is scheduled for release on April 3 and after last week's weather events, including wildfires in the Carolinas, tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana, and some precipitation in the central Plains and upper Midwest, the upcoming report is likely to show an improvement in drought conditions from all of the wet weather from the U.S. Northern and central California and the western Great Basin.
In contrast, drier conditions are expected for the southern Rockies, High Plains, and Rio Grande Valley.
5. The 24/25 U.S. Corn Export Program has been on fire this year at one point last fall up a whopping 48% vs. last year as Mexico, the largest buyer, represented 40% of the total and this without China. Mexico and Japan represent 52% of the total U.S. corn exports, but an escalating U.S. global trade war has seen the U.S. corn export pace slow down 24% in the past week vs. a USDA target for an 8% gain.
Look for further signs that demand may be falling more than expected as fear over tariffs slow down economies near-term as countries back off from making purchases until we get more clarity on U.S. tariffs or trade deals.
For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.