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Wheat crop forecasts soar - Oklahoma leads with 40% increase

By Farms.com

The USDA's initial wheat crop estimates for 2024 indicate promising prospects for key producing states. Oklahoma stands out with a projected 40% increase in wheat production compared to 2023. USDA forecasts a 96.2 million bushel crop, based on an expected 2.6 million harvested acres yielding an average of 37 bushels per acre.

Kansas is also poised for a bumper crop, with USDA predicting a 33% surge in production compared to the previous year. The estimate stands at 267.9 million bushels, driven by an anticipated yield of 38 bushels per acre across 7.05 million harvested acres.

In contrast, Texas anticipates a slight dip in wheat production for 2024, with USDA forecasting a harvest of 71.4 million bushels, down from 77.7 million bushels in 2023.

These projections align with discussions at the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association meeting, where estimates ranged from 86 million to 102 million bushels for the state's wheat crop. USDA's figure falls within this spectrum, reflecting a balanced assessment.

The USDA's forecasts hint at significant shifts in regional wheat production landscapes for the upcoming harvest season, signaling potential implications for agricultural markets and stakeholders across the nation.


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.