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2019 Volatile Year In Agriculture

The Chief Agricultural Economist with Farm Credit Canada (FCC) says 2019 was a very volatile, uncertain year.
 
JP Gervais says two things really stand out for the agriculture sector, trade and weather.
 
He notes China’s ban on canola seed shipments from two of our biggest exporters is still an issue.
 
"That really was a major, major event. We had canola prices that really started to somewhat decline at the end of 2018, going into early 2019 but certainly that brought canola prices even further down with the ban of canola seed going to China. So that's one thing that stood out for sure and then in the summer we had also another ban with regards to our Canadian pork and beef exports."
 
Beef and pork exports to China have since been lifted with the product slowly starting to move again.
 
Gervais believes that China will have to look at rationing their meat supply as African Swine Fever has really impacted their pork supply.
 
"We’ve seen retail prices in China jump really high,  over 100% for pork, there's a lot of inflation for beef and chicken as well.  So, on the protein side I think the 2020 story is going to be interesting as well.  It started out in 2019 with how we position the demand for protein.  2020 is going to be really interesting because there's going to be a really big gap."
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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.