Chuck Penner with LeftField Commodity Research says farmers grew their second largest durum crop on record last year.
"The Canadian durum crop according to Stats Can was quite large at 6.6-6.7 million tonnes. The good news according to Sask Ag's Crop Reports was that 86% of the crop was either a #1 or a #2."
Penner says having #1or #2 Durum doesn't really help you much in the export market, because a lot of the buyers aren't necessarily looking for those top grades.
Wheat and durum grade spreads have been very narrow this year, Penner says, that's just because there's been plenty of good quality crop and buyers didn't need to bid up for it.
Despite the large crop, durum supplies didn't change much from the previous year because of the low carryover.
Globally, some of our key buyers, countries like Morroco, Algeria and Tunisia saw a decline in their production in 2020.
Penner says there was some concern in the past about bigger exports coming from the Black Sea, but exports from Russia and Kazachstan have been very, very low adding they've been minor players in exports this year.
Other durum producing countries like Mexico and the E-U had smaller crops, with the larger crops being reported in Canada and the U.S.
November was a record month for durum exports with Stats Can reporting Canada exported 790 thousand tonnes of durum, the most we've ever exported in a single month.
Penner notes we've been hearing about Italy not buying, but they have been and in a big way, in November Italy bought 420 thousand tonnes.
He says demand is above average but they'll have to be a pretty significant in exports over the next few months because supplies are going to tighten up.
Penner anticipates quite low ending stocks for durum in 2021, which is friendly for prices.
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