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2023 Cattle and hog outlook update: feed costs and demand strength lead profit uncertainty

This is the second quarterly update to our 2023 Outlook for cattle and hogs published in February. Over the last two weeks, we updated our Outlooks for dairy and major crops.

Prices for fed steers in Ontario and Alberta have continued to gain since our May outlook update. Our forecasts for each price category are also higher year-over-year (YoY) and significantly higher than their respective five-year averages. Prices for live hogs have similarly improved since May except for Manitoba feeder hogs and isoweans, bringing some relief to eastern producers. However, they’ve not yet returned to the levels we had initially forecasted in February.

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Accuracy in testing for DON

Video: Accuracy in testing for DON

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is a mycotoxin naturally produced by the fungus that causes Gibberella ear rot in corn. Infection occurs through the corn silk channel when ideal temperatures (approx. 27°C) and higher humidity are present. Cool wet conditions after pollination favour continual disease development and determines the level of infection. Effective sampling, detection, and quantification of DON are challenging due to its uneven distribution on the ear as well as its presence across the field, resulting in infected and non-infected kernels in the same grain sample.