In our January forecasts, we expected farm cash receipts (FCR) to continue growing in 2023, although at a more moderate pace than in 2022. While specific sectors’ FCR have varied since January, our June projections for total Canadian FCR are unchanged. We forecast the 2023 FCR to grow by 4.5%, helping offset some high input costs.
This analysis only looks at the revenue side of the ledger, and higher FCR does not necessarily mean that farm profits are increasing.
Prairies showing growth while hogs limit Quebec and Ontario receipt growth
Statistics Canada released the 2022 FCR in May, along with revisions for previous years. The revisions were large enough to change the direction of several 2023 forecasts. Corn, for example, is now forecast to be down year-over-year (YoY) because they revised 2022 upwards so significantly, while our initial 2023 forecast has only increased slightly.
Our 2023 projections of YoY changes in FCR (Table 1) incorporate StatCan FCR estimates for the first quarter and data from other sources. The largest projected increases in 2023 FCR are in the Prairie provinces and Atlantic Canada. Ontario and Quebec are projected to decline in 2023 primarily due to weaker hogs and crop receipts. British Columbia’s decline is due to total crop receipts declining.
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