2023 Grains, oilseeds and pulses sector outlook

FCC Economics helps you make sense of the top economic trends and issues likely to affect your operation in 2023. The major trends to monitor for grain, oilseed and pulse operations include:

• Tight global supply/demand balances that may be on the verge of loosening
• Record-breaking average fertilizer costs

A large rebound in production from 2021’s drought-impacted harvest best characterizes the Canadian 2022/23 crop marketing year (MY). It was a good year to have more crop to sell, as commodity prices continued to rise, and excessively dry conditions plagued several of Canada’s largest competitors. Farm revenues showed steep gains year-over-year (YoY) , a rise necessary to keep on top of input prices that seemed to know no limits.

Prices for most principal field crops have already come down from the highs reached in 2022 but remain well in excess of their respective 5-year averages (Table 1). Corn and soybeans are each expected to continue rising from 2021/22 levels in the 2022/23 MY, the only prices to do so. All crops except feed barley will see prices rise relative to year-to-date before falling with the 2023 crop. Despite the decline, they’ll remain above the most recent five-year average.