2024 Dairy outlook: returning to a sense of normalcy

Higher processor demand and still-low butter stocks are setting the stage for more milk production from Canadian dairy farmers in 2024. This, combined with strong culled cow/calf prices and stabilizing – though still high – input costs provide context to our average gross margin estimates for 2024, which look better than they have in the last few years (Figure 1).  

In December 2023, the Western Milk Pool (WMP) announced that, effective February 1, 2024, quota increases would take effect. The increases are not distributed evenly across provinces (see Table 1) due to a ‘rebalancing’ effort to ensure all four provinces in the WMP are on an even playing field. No quota increases in eastern Canada (i.e., the P5) have been announced at this time.