2024 Dairy outlook: returning to a sense of normalcy

Feb 09, 2024

Higher processor demand and still-low butter stocks are setting the stage for more milk production from Canadian dairy farmers in 2024. This, combined with strong culled cow/calf prices and stabilizing – though still high – input costs provide context to our average gross margin estimates for 2024, which look better than they have in the last few years (Figure 1).

In December 2023, the Western Milk Pool (WMP) announced that, effective February 1, 2024, quota increases would take effect. The increases are not distributed evenly across provinces (see Table 1) due to a ‘rebalancing’ effort to ensure all four provinces in the WMP are on an even playing field. No quota increases in eastern Canada (i.e., the P5) have been announced at this time.

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Video: Agriculture Secretary Rollins Speaks at American Farm Bureau Federation Convention in Anaheim

One of the highlights at the 2026 American Farm Bureau Federation Convention in Anaheim, California, was an address by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. During her remarks, she thanked America’s farmers and ranchers and said the Trump Administration is fully aware that food security is national security.

She also acknowledged the challenging times in Farm Country with low commodity prices and high input costs and said that’s why the President stepped in to help with the recent Bridge Assistance Program.

Montana Farm Bureau Federation Executive Vice President Scott Kulbeck says that Farm Bureau members are appreciative of the help and looks forward to working with the American Farm Bureau Federation and its presence in Washington, DC to keep farmers and ranchers in business.

Secretary Rollins said the Trump Administration is also committed to helping ranchers build back America’s cattle herd while also providing more high-quality U.S. beef at the meat case for consumers.

And she also announced more assistance for specialty crop producers who only received a fraction of the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA).

It’s important to note that producers who qualify for Farmer Bridge Assistance can expect the Farm Service Agency to start issuing payments in late February. For more information, farmers and ranchers are encouraged to contact their local USDA Service Center.