A Billion Bushels And Growing

Checkoff looks beyond China for more export diversity and growth

China’s appetite for soybeans is well documented and shows little sign of being satisfied. As the world’s No. 1 soybean importer and U.S. soybean farmers’ top export customer, China’s total soybean consumption is expected to top 3 billion bushels this year. In 2014, China imported a record 1.1 billion bushels from the U.S.

“As long as we do not have trade disruptions with China, our customers there will continue buying a substantial percentage of their soybeans form the U.S.,” says Laura Foell, United Soybean Board (USB) director from Schaller, Iowa. Foell also chairs the USB Meal Action Team and the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “But as in every industry, we need to make sure that we have diverse markets,” she says.

Trade disruptions could come from China’s concern over GMOs and acceptance of new products. Denial of new traits could jeopardize U.S. market share.

A USB project to diversify markets and avoid relying too heavily on China is having a positive effect. Exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia, Mexico, the Middle East and North Africa are steadily increasing and could make up for bushels lost from China.

Global soybean demand is expected to grow substantially in the next decade. Soy checkoff consultant John Baize estimates the world will need an additional 80 million metric tons of soybeans by 2025, roughly 2.94 billion more bushels. Much of that demand growth stems from Asia, where about 70 percent of U.S. soy exports currently go. Besides China, nations with significant growth potential include Taiwan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and India.