Abstract: Estimating Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus from Experimental Studies

Jan 09, 2023

Abstract: Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit.

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Video: How Data Predicts Swine Outbreaks - Swaminathan Jayaraman

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Swaminathan Jayaraman, Research Assistant and PhD Candidate at Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine, explains how integrated data systems can improve disease surveillance in swine production. He discusses combining diagnostics, animal movement data, production records, and spatial analytics to identify risks earlier and support proactive decision-making for PRRS, PED, and swine influenza. Listen now on all major platforms!

"Disease surveillance remains largely reactive because outbreaks are often confirmed only after transmission has already occurred across multiple connected production sites."

Meet the guest: Swaminathan Jayaraman / swamjay is a Graduate Research Assistant at Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine. With academic training in management information systems and engineering, he focuses on integrating diagnostic, production, and movement data to improve disease surveillance and decision support in swine production systems. Listen to Swaminathan Jayaraman on The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, available on all major platforms.