Abstract: Estimating Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus from Experimental Studies

Jan 09, 2023

Abstract: Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit.

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Video: Evidence-Based PRRS Elimination Methods - Dr. Brent Pepin

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show, Dr. Brent Pepin, Director of Swine Health at the National Pork Board, explains how a systematic review of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus elimination methods is helping shape future herd health strategies. He discusses evidence-based farm and regional approaches, research gaps, and practical guidance to support informed decision-making across the swine industry. Listen now on all major platforms!

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"Disease status sharing gives producers the opportunity to make real-time decisions that reduce PRRS prevalence and protect regions from new exposure."

Meet the guest: Dr. Brent Pepin / brent-pepin-dvm-ms-7988066b is Director of Swine Health at the National Pork Board. After earning his DVM and M.S. from Iowa State University, he built extensive experience in swine veterinary practice, research, and herd health management. His current work focuses on disease control, traceability, and improving herd health across the U.S. swine industry. Listen to Brent Pepin on The Swine it Podcast Show, available on all major platforms.