Abstract: Estimating Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus from Experimental Studies

Jan 09, 2023

Abstract: Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit.

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Video: Season 6, Episode 7: Takeaways from the Second International Conference on Pig Livability

This year’s conference fostered open, engaging conversations around current research in the swine industry, bringing together hundreds of attendees from 31 states and six countries. Two leaders who helped organize the event joined today’s episode: Dr. Joel DeRouchey, professor and swine extension specialist in the Department of Animal Sciences and Industry at Kansas State University, and Dr. Edison Magalhaes, assistant professor in the Department of Animal Sciences at Iowa State University. They share key takeaways from the conference, including the importance of integrating data when evaluating whole-herd livability, building a culture of care among employees and adopting new technologies. Above all, the discussion reinforces that this industry remains, at its core, a people business.