Abstract: Estimating Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus from Experimental Studies

Jan 09, 2023

Abstract: Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit.

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Video: CEOs of the Industry – International Edition Michael Agerley | Partner, IQinAbox

In this CEOs of the Industry – International Edition, we sit down with Michael Agerley, Partner at IQinAbox, to explore how data is reshaping the future of pig production.

After more than 20 years as a veterinarian, Michael shares his unique perspective on the shift from hands-on animal care to data-driven decision making across the pork value chain.

We dive into:

• How better data is improving real on-farm decisions

• The biggest opportunities still untapped in pig production

• How Europe is leading (and where it’s still lagging) in tech adoption

• The role of AI and smart systems in the next 5–10 years

• Why trust, leadership, and practical application matter more than ever

This conversation bridges veterinary insight, technology, and real-world farming, offering a clear look at where the industry is headed—and what it will take to get there.