Abstract: Estimating Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus from Experimental Studies

Jan 09, 2023

Abstract: Estimating transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus from experimental studies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to spread across the world, and currently, there are no treatments or vaccines available to combat this virus. Reliable estimates of transmission parameters for ASFV are therefore needed to establish effective contingency plans. This study used data from controlled ASFV inoculations of pigs to assess the transmission parameters. Three models were developed with (binary, piecewise-linear and exponential) time-dependent levels of infectiousness based on latency periods of 3-5 days derived from the analysis of 294 ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid-stabilized blood samples originating from 16 pigs with direct and 10 pigs with indirect contact to 8 inoculated pigs. The models were evaluated for three different discrete latency periods of infection. The likelihood ratio test showed that a binary model had an equally good fit for a latency period of 4 or 5 days as the piecewise-linear and exponential model. However, for a latency period of 3 days, the piecewise-linear and exponential models had the best fit.

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Video: Season 7, Episode 1: Managing Risk and Seeing Opportunities in U.S. Pork Production

Today’s episode features three guests discussing the similarities and differences between pork production in the United States and Brazil, along with strategies for managing risk in today’s industry while recognizing and acting on opportunities. First, Dr. Anne Caroline de Lara, executive manager of live pig production at Seara Alimentos, a JBS company in Brazil, is joined by Dr. Matthew Turner, head of operations for JBS Live Pork. Together, they discuss how labor, climate and ventilation challenges vary between Brazil and the United States, while underscoring their shared commitment to raising healthy pigs. They also point to lessons producers in both countries can take from one another’s systems and on-farm experiences. Then, Brady Reicks, risk manager at Reicks View Farms, shares his perspective on risk management, drawing from his background in markets and his transition into farming. He discusses how protecting margins varies by operation and offers practical approaches producers can use to make marketing and business decisions with greater confidence rather than hesitation.

Both conversations were recorded at recent industry events focused on swine livability, including the International Conference on Pig Livability and Iowa Swine Day.