Abstract: Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam
African swine fever (ASF) is a severe infectious disease affecting domestic and wild suids. Spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of the ASF is crucial to understanding its transmission. The ASF broke out in Vietnam in February 2019. The research on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ASF in Vietnam is lacking. Spatiotemporal statistical methods, including direction analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scan statistics were used to reveal the dynamics of the spatial diffusion direction and spatiotemporal aggregation characteristics of ASF in Vietnam. According to the cessation of the epidemic, it was divided into three phases: February to August 2019 (phase 1), April to December 2020 (phase 2), and January 2021 to March 2022 (phase 3). The ASF showed a significant spread trend from north to south in phase 1. The occurrence rate of the ASF aggregated spatially in phase 1 and became random in phases 2 and 3.
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