Ag Retail Sales: Large Ag Down Double Digits, Inventories Mixed

Jul 11, 2024

Large Ag unit retail sales were down 14.6% year/year, with declines in Row Crop and Combines more than offsetting a very slight increase in 4WDs. Combined US/Canada large Ag unit sales -14.6% year/year in May (-6.1% in May). By category, row crop -12.3%, 4WD tractors +0.8%, combines -28.7%. U.S. dealer inventories down 15.4% year/year in 2WD tractors, +61.1% in 4WD tractors, and down 17.9% in combines; inventories remain the key item to watch, we remain encouraged by early signs of progress particularly in Small Ag and Combines.

US and Canada large tractor and combine unit retail sales were down 14.6% year/year in June (May -6.1%, April +12.8%, March -3.1%, February -7.9%, January -13.9%). US large ag sales were down 16.1% following a 6.7% decline in May; Canada sales fell 5.7% following a 3.3% decline in May.
- US sales: row crop tractors -13.9%, 4WD tractors -1.3%, combines -31.0%.
- Canada sales: row crop tractors -0.3%, 4WD tractors +10.6%, combines -20.8%
4WD tractor sales +0.8% year/year in June following +5.5% in May; June L3M sales +10.2% year/year vs. +8.0% in May.
- US dealer inventories of 4WD tractors +61.1% year/year in May, the 19^th consecutive increase. On a days-sales basis, inventories up year/year in May to 65 (May 2023: 47) and up sequentially (April: 63), though remaining below pre-Covid days/sales. June typically a below-average month of the year for 4WD tractor sales, averaging 6.5% of annual sales the last five years.
Row crop tractor sales -12.3% year/year in June following -8.1% in May; May L3M sales -3.6% vs. +1.6% in May.
- US row crop tractor inventories +19.1% year/year in May. On a days-sales basis, inventories up year/year in May at 166 (May 2023: 139) and up sequentially (April: 157). June typically an average month of the year for row crop tractor sales, averaging 7.9% of annual sales the last five years.
Combine sales -28.7% year/year in June following a 4.6% decline in May; June L3M sales -5.3% vs. -1.1% in May.
- US combine inventories -17.9% year/year in May, the second consecutive decline. On a days-sales basis, inventories down year/year in May to 80 (May 2023: 83) though up sequentially (April: 69). June typically an average month of the year for combine sales, averaging 8.5% of annual sales the last five years.
Mid-range tractor sales -11.6% year/year in June (May -12.0%, April -5.7%) while compact tractor sales were -19.3% year/year (May -11.9%, April -4.9%). June an above-average month for mid-range tractors (averaging 9.9% of annual sales) and compact tractors (averaging 11.1% of annual sales).

Source : Farm Equipment

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