Alberta Yield Potential Little Changed

Alberta yield potential has not gotten much better over the past two weeks, but it hasn’t gotten much worse either.

The latest bi-weekly crop report on Friday projected provincial yields at an average of about 41% below the five-year average, with spring wheat forecast at just under 30 bu/acre, barley at 37.2 bu, oats at 47 bu and canola at 24.7. The average pea yield in the province is estimated at 23.4 bu/acre. All of the estimates are little changed from two weeks earlier.

The best yields in the province are expected in the North West Region at 28% below the five-year average, followed by the Peace Region at 32% below, the Central at 41% below and the North East at 44% below. The lowest yields are expected in the South Region, where yields are expected to fall 51% below the five-year average.

Meanwhile, provincial crop condition ratings declined slightly from the previous crop report (as of July 27). Currently, just 18% of crops in Alberta are in good to excellent condition, compared to the five-year average (2016-2020) of 69%. On a crop-by-crop basis, condition ratings range from a high of almost 30% good to excellent for flax to a low of 11.4% for chickpeas and only 15.4% for canola.

Crop development was accelerated by the heat wave over the months of June and July. Spring seeded cereals across the province are mostly in the dough development growth stage, while all dry peas, 97% of canola and more than 95% of lentils and chickpeas are in the podding stage. Crops still look weak in many areas with small head sizes and unfilled kernels, the report said.

Harvest is advanced in all regions and operations have begun for fall-seeded crops, pulses and some early-seeded spring cereals. Provincially, 62% of fall rye, 44% of winter wheat, 32% of lentils, 19% of dry peas and 14% of both durum wheat and triticale are now in the bin, accounting for about 4% of all crops. About 1% of crops across the province have been swathed and 95% are still standing.

Region One: South (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

• Warm dry conditions continued in the region, with rain bringing moisture in some areas. Harvest in most areas has started and is ahead of normal, with several fields being cut for greenfeed.
• About 12 per cent of crops are now in the bin (compared to the 5-year average of six per cent) and another two per cent are swathed. Nearly 73 per cent of fall rye, 44 per cent of winter wheat, 40 per cent of dry peas and 30 per cent of lentils are now in the bin.
• First cut haying operations for both dryland and irrigated land are virtually complete. Average yield on dryland is estimated at 0.8 ton per acre, below the 5-year average of 1.1 tons per acre and is 2.2 tons per acre on irrigated land, lower than the 5-year average of 2.4 tons per acre. Of first cut hay, about 65 per cent of dryland hay and 40 per cent of irrigated hay is rated as poor or fair quality. Second cut haying operations is currently underway only in irrigated fields, with 33 per cent completed at 1.7 tons per acre yield.
• Pasture growing conditions (tame hay conditions shown in brackets) are now reported as 53 (47) per cent poor, 31 (36) per cent fair, 15 (17) per cent good and 1 (0) per cent excellent.
• Surface soil moisture is rated (sub-surface soil moisture ratings shown in brackets) at 50 (55) per cent poor, 37 (35) per cent fair, 12 (10) per cent good and 1 (0) per cent excellent.

Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)

• Scattered showers and moderate temperatures in the central and northwestern parts of the region improved soil moisture and were beneficial to fill what is left of crops. Hail was reported in some counties.
• About four per cent of crops have been combined in the region (compared to the 5-year average of less than one per cent), with another one per cent swathed, while 95 per cent of crops are still standing. Almost 48 per cent of winter wheat, 19 per cent of fall rye, 17 per cent of dry peas and 44 per cent of lentils are now in the bin.
• Producers wrapped up first cut hay and second cut is underway, ahead of normal. For first cut hay, average yield is estimated at 1.2 and two tons per acre, respectively for dryland and irrigated (both below the 5-year averages). Quality is rated as 54 per cent good to excellent for dryland hay and 70 per cent good for irrigated.
• Pastures are becoming depleted, but hay and pasture growing conditions improved from the last report. Pasture growing conditions (tame hay conditions shown in brackets) are reported as 39 (41) per cent poor, 28 (28) per cent fair, 32 (29) per cent good and 1 (2) per cent excellent.
• Surface soil moisture is rated (sub-surface soil moisture ratings shown in brackets) at 44 (37) per cent poor, 29 (32) per cent fair and 27 (31) per cent good.

Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

• Dry conditions persist, particularly in the southeastern parts, while localized showers helped moisture conditions in other counties.
• Over the past five years, no crops were harvested at this time, while all winter wheat, 93 per cent of fall rye and eight per cent of dry peas are now in the bin. Overall, nine per cent of crops have been combined in the region and 91 per cent still standing.
• First cut haying is 99 per cent complete, much ahead of the 5-year average of 79 per cent completed at this time. Yield is reported at 0.9 ton per acre, below the 5-year average of 1.7 tons per acre and quality is rated as 23 per cent poor and fair, 24 per cent good and 53 per cent excellent. Second cut hay is also under-way.
• Pasture growing conditions (tame hay conditions shown in brackets) are reported as 72 (78) per cent poor, 18 (18) per cent fair and 10 (4) per cent good.
• Surface soil moisture is reported (sub-surface soil moisture ratings shown in brackets) at 62 (47) per cent poor, 24 (33) per cent fair and 14 (20) per cent good.

Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca

• Scattered rain storms over the past two weeks deposited some moisture in most parts of the region. Some crops were hit with hail, losing their potential yields. Currently, about one per cent of all crops are in the bin and 99 per cent are still standing, while many crops are expected to be harvested for feed.
• First cut haying is virtually complete and second cut haying progress varies. The yield for first cut hay is reported at 1.3 tons per acre, below the 5-year average of two tons per acre. Quality is estimated at 43 per cent poor or fair, 42 per cent good and 15 per cent excellent.
• Pasture growing conditions (tame hay conditions shown in brackets) are reported as 41 (38) per cent poor, 52 (44) per cent fair and 7 (18) per cent good.
• Surface soil moisture is reported (sub-surface soil moisture ratings shown in brackets) at 31 (15) per cent poor, 41 (50) per cent fair and 28 (35) per cent good.

Region Five: Peace (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Peace River, Valleyview)

• Spotty showers were reported for the region over the past two weeks, with temperatures mostly in mid 20s. Harvest of dry peas has started and combining cereals will be starting soon, but canola needs more time. Overall, less than one per cent of all crops in the region are now in the bin.
• First cut haying operations are now 99 per cent complete with the average yield estimated at 0.7 ton per acre, below the 5-year average of 1.5 tons per acre. Quality is rated as 34 per cent poor, 44 per cent fair, 18 per cent good and 4 per cent excellent.
• Pasture growing conditions (tame hay conditions shown in brackets) are reported as 66 (62) per cent poor, 31 (35) per cent fair and 3 (3) per cent good.
• Surface soil moisture is rated (sub-surface soil moisture ratings shown in brackets) at 46 (42) per cent poor, 40 (41) per cent fair, 12 (15) per cent good and 2 (2) per cent excellent.