All Wheat Production Down Further

The 2021 Canadian all wheat crop will be even smaller than expected amid downgrades for both durum and spring wheat compared to last month.

Tuesday’s Statistics Canada crop production report pegged all wheat production at 21.71 million tonnes, down from StatsCan’s August estimate of 22.94 million and 38.3% below last year.

Although estimated winter wheat output was left steady from last month at 2.84 million tonnes (up 2.5% from 2020), spring wheat output was trimmed to 15.32 million tonnes from 16.1 million and durum was lowered to 3.54 million from 3.99 million. If accurate, spring wheat production would be down about 10.5 million tonnes or 41% from 2020, with durum down about 3 million tonnes or 46%.

The national all wheat yield is now estimated at 35.2 bu/acre, down 2 bu from the August estimate and roughly one-third below a year earlier. The average estimated spring wheat yield, at 35.3 bu/acre, is down from 37.1 bu in August and 53.6 bu last year, while the average durum yield is down 3.1 bu from August and 18.5 bu below 2020 at 24.1 bu/acre.

In the primary production province of Saskatchewan, spring wheat production is forecast at 6.03 million tonnes, versus 6.3 million in August and 10.62 million in 2020. Durum output in the province is estimated at 2.94 million tonnes this month, down from 3.39 million in August and 5.21 million a year ago. The average spring wheat and durum yields in the province are now estimated at 30.3 and 24.4 bu/acre, respectively, compared to 31.7 bu and 28.2 bu in August and last year’s 48.7 bu and 45.9 bu.

Alberta’s spring wheat crop is forecast at 5.41 million tonnes, a slight increase from 5.35 million in August but still 8% below last year. Durum output is pegged at 601,000 tonnes, steady from last month although down by more than half from the 2020 crop of 1.32 million. The average spring wheat yield in the province, at 35 bu/acre, is up from 34.6 bu last month but well down from 56.8 bu a year ago. The durum yield at 22.7 bu/acre, is also unchanged from August but down from 48.5 bu in 2020.