Analysts Waiting For China To Act On Phase One Trade Deal

Analysts in the U.S. are waiting on the Chinese to make their move.

 

Dan Basse is president of AgResource Company in Chicago.

 

"We have this phase one agreement, the agreement was signed on the 15th of January. There's a 30-day period to implement that agreement. That means February 15th, which is this weekend. So next week we'll really start to see if the Chinese have any intentions of buying U.S. grains or ag products. It will be very important to the markets. There may be a little bit of flexibility to coronavirus, but overall the traders here want to see, taste and feel the Chinese demand before they get too rambunctious on the long side of the market."

 

The USDA released its February WASDE report Tuesday morning, which Basse says was very conservative with estimates about the Chinese phase one agreement.

Video: Did Bears Win Thanksgiving, Will Bulls Get Christmas?

Did the bears win Thanksgiving (although this week had green on the screen), and will the bulls get Christmas? Bears won thanksgiving thanks to a USDA Nov crop report dud that stalled the bullish grain momentum for a brief period. But a bullish lower yield surprise in the Dec crop report could reignite the rally.
2026 U.S. winter wheat planting is nearly complete at 97% while crop conditions improved by 3 points to 48% good-to-excellent. US corn & soybean harvest is complete.
High corn demand, which is off the chart, and more Chinese soybean demand could support a Christmas rally.
Nasdaq had it’s worst November since 2011.
A U.S. Fed rate cut in December will help fund flow and sentiment.
Bitcoin held a long-term support at 80,000 and that's positive for fund flow and sentiment. It should help stock prices and Ag as we go into December.
Fertilizer prices continue to climb as we look ahead to 2026. Farmers may rely more on the nutrients that they already have in their soils.
South American Weather remains critical as the soybean reproductive stage starts from late Nov to late Feb depending on planting date.
Will a Russia-Ukraine peace deal happen by year-end?
CFTC data as of showed more managed money fund sell-off as of October 14th.