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Bean Report - May 13

Seeding is progressing very slowly in Manitoba.
 
Cassandra Tkachuk is a production specialist with Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers.
 
"The early seeded pulse crops like peas and faba beans started going in the ground a couple of weeks ago and they continue into this week, possibly into the coming weeks, for different regions and depending on the weather. Daily soil temperature swings from day to night are still hovering around lower temperatures across the province. This is fine for faba beans that can germinate in three degree soil, and for peas that can germinate in five degree soil but soybeans and dry beans really prefer warmer soil."
 
Tkachuk talked about the impact of snow and frost.
 
"If the seedlings haven't emerged yet at the time of frost or snowfall, they will be safe from damage. If pea and faba bean seedlings are already out of the ground, you can feel comforted that they are tolerant to frost and they can regrow from below ground nodes. But soybean and dry bean seedlings, unfortunately they can't handle the frost."
 
She had some tips for farmers thinking about seeding soybeans soon.
 
"Research tells us that the best yield potential comes from planting during the first three weeks in May. The planting window in May for soybeans is pretty flexible. With the spring we've been having, I caution you to keep an eye on that frost risk. A good rule of thumb, is to plant within two weeks of your last expected frost and make sure that seedlings emerge into a frost free environment and you'll also want to make sure you've got warm weather coming after seeding."
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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!