In 2022, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, barley, oats, soybeans and corn for grain, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. Increased production was largely driven by better growing conditions in Western Canada.
In parts of the Prairies, higher-than-average precipitation and more moderate temperatures have resulted in better crop conditions than in 2021.
In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that approximately three-quarters of the total crop were rated as being in good to excellent condition, well above 2021 reports, where one-fifth of the total crop was rated good to excellent. Reports from Manitoba provincial government indicated that crop conditions in the province were better than in 2021 and that yields are anticipated to be near normal. Dry conditions continue to be a concern for much of Saskatchewan, where precipitation remains below average.
In Eastern Canada, much of southern Ontario has experienced drier-than-average conditions, while eastern parts of Ontario and most of Quebec received higher-than-average rainfall. In general, temperatures over the last month of the growing season were slightly cooler than normal.
For several years, Statistics Canada has relied upon proven satellite technology and agroclimatic data to model preliminary estimates of crop yields and production. These methods have been used successfully to produce September yield estimates since 2016, and they replaced those used to produce July yield estimates in 2020. Coarse resolution-based satellite modelling relies on historical averages for harvested area. Final harvested area estimates will be published on December 2, 2022, based on the November 2022 Field Crop Survey.
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