Can U.S. Soy Hold onto Yield?

Aug 26, 2021

By Jen Del Carmen

Each summer, especially as harvest grows near, international buyers are increasingly interested in and asking farmers how their crops look. With its annual Crop Tour, Pro Farmer helps answer that question. This year, U.S. Soy teamed up with Pro Farmer to help shed light on crop quality, crop progress and anticipated yields.

The crop looks good right now but without moisture, we could see that fall in some areas, said Chip Flory, editorial director and host at Pro Farmer and Farm Journal Media. Flory presented the results to hundreds of global customers Aug. 25 during the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange and Specialty Grains Conference.

Flory shared that many bean fields are at a critical stage in needed rain. If soybeans can catch a rain or two in the next couple of weeks, those pods could easily fill out. On the flip side, if it doesn’t rain, we could lose some. Dependent on weather, it could tilt either way, he explained.

He also noted that scouts were a bit surprised as they got into fields. From the road, the crop looked good, he said, but when you got into the fields, the pod counts weren’t there. However, Flory reminded buyers: It’s not the pod counts that equate to yield; it’s how they fill out.

Click here to see more...

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.