Canada cannot not solve all the problems of the Ukraine crisis but there are actions it can take to help blunt rising fears about global food security, says a new research report from the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI).
Authored by Angèle Poirier, Ted Bilyea, and Al Mussell and released Thursday, the report looks at the state of global food supply and demand, the role Ukraine and Russia play in supplying food, livestock feed, and fertilizer around the world, and provides insight into the role Canada can play to cushion the agri-food impact of the conflict.
Perhaps most notably, the report said there may be an opportunity for Canada to help supply countries most heavily reliant on lost Ukrainian wheat supplies for 2022, and perhaps longer. Rising wheat prices should support increased Canadian spring wheat acres, however, the report also acknowledged that many of the same forces lifting wheat prices are also pushing canola higher, potentially frustrating a supply response.
“A co-ordinated multinational effort may be required if there is a need to provide ongoing relief of wheat and other feedstuff supplies to countries most sensitive to the loss of Ukraine as a supplier,” the report said.
Further, the report said Canada needs to invest in rail and port infrastructure to improve supply chain resiliency and its ability to be a more efficient and reliable supplier of food, feed, and fertilizer as demand ramps up in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. “This is not a new problem, but in a world more characterized by scarcity and strong demand pull, it is even more of a priority.”
To combat a major disruption in fertilizer shipments from Russia, the report said Canada should also develop a strategy to increase domestic nitrogen capacity. While Canada is a major exporter of fertilizers - and the largest exporter of potash - it is still an importer of Russian nitrogen fertilizers, despite its own extensive supplies of natural gas. Greater self-reliance is warranted, the report said, noting increased nitrogen manufacturing capacity can be built.
Canada also needs to lessen its strategic dependence on imported phosphate by encouraging the development of domestic mines and recovery of phosphate from wastewater, it added.
Given the risks facing European livestock industries that have been based on feed grains imported from Ukraine, the report said Canadian livestock producers may be poised to help fill any potential supply gap. But with segments of livestock production in Canada now under significant economic stress, it suggest governments need to be looking at how to support these industries during a possible transition.
“In a global shift toward more market oriented and competitive livestock production systems, Canada could be well positioned — recognizing the need for both renewal and new investment, and mechanisms of risk mitigation to support investment.”
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