National wheat production for this year might not quite measure up to earlier expectations but is still projected above 2023.
The latest model-based production estimates from Statistics Canada on Monday pegged the 2024 Canadian all wheat crop at 34.293 million tonnes. That is down slightly from the federal agency’s August forecast of 34.373 million but up 4.1% on the year although below the 2022 crop of 34.806 million.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
This year’s average national all wheat yield is estimated at 48.4 bu/acre, down fractionally from 48.5 bu/acre in August. That is up 5.7% from the 2023 average of 45.8 bu but still below the 2022 average of 51.3 bu. This year’s higher average yield was more than enough to offset a 1.6% reduction in expected all wheat harvested area from last year to 26.025 million acres.
Durum production is still seen the leading the increase in all wheat output, with the 2024 crop now estimated at 6.033 million tonnes, little changed from 6.021 million in August and up a hefty 47.6% from a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the largest Canadian durum crop since 2020 at 6.571 million tonnes.
The spring wheat crop is estimated at 25.275 million tonnes, down slightly from the August estimate of 25.351 million and 1% below last year. At 2.984 million tonnes, national winter wheat production is also down slightly from the August estimate of 3 million but above 2.852 million in 2023.
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