A smaller crop here and a larger one in Australia will likely combine to trim Canadian canola exports in 2022-23, market sources say.
In its November supply-demand estimates, Agriculture Canada forecast Canadian canola exports for the current marketing year at 9.3 million tonnes, up more than 76% from the previous year.
However, the Ag Canada forecast was based on Statistics Canada’s September model-based production forecast of 19.1 million tonnes. Meanwhile, last week’s updated StatsCan production report lowered this year’s crop to 18.17 million tonnes, leaving less supply for exports. Additionally, a record large canola production forecast for Australia means Canadian supplies will see more competition in international markets, which has the potential to trim shipments as well.
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