Canola caught in the doldrums, but a rally could break out

Dec 05, 2023

Farmers have seen their future earnings bleeding out for months. Anybody with unpriced canola has seen about a 20 percent drop in futures values since July. Cash prices are, of course, lower in this sort of environment.

It’s a bad way to enter winter and a puzzling one for some.

“It’s a bit of a mystery to me,” Stephen Nicholson, Rabobank’s Global Sector Strategist for Grains and Oilseeds, told me Nov. 27 as he was preparing for the GrowCanada conference in Calgary .

“Did the price get too high in 2022? Yes. Now we’re on the back side of that.”

The good news that Nicholson was taking to GrowCanada was that the outlook for canola prices is better than the present market is offering. There is new crushing demand for western Canadian canola and healthy export demand.

Across North America, demand for renewable diesel feedstocks like canola is surging. Currently, most demand comes from the West Coast, but more processing capacity is coming online in other parts of the continent as part of a long-term trend that is not abating.

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Video: A Farm Song (Busy) | Parody of A Bar Song (Tipsy) by Shaboozey

Lyrics:

My days begin with workin’, Alarm’s at 5 o’clock,
I Fill 5 gallon buckets, The feeders and the troughs,
This five to nine ain’t workin’, why the heck do I work so hard?,
I can’t worry ‘bout health problems, I can sleep in when I’m gone,

One, here comes the two to the three to the four,
Tell em’ ‘buy another cow, we need plenty more’,
Blue jeans are gettin’ dirty, what else could I ask for,
Oh my, more chores

Someone pour me up another shot of sweet tea,
They know me and working hard’s got a history,
There’s another flock of sheep that still needs feed,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,

Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,

I’ve been working pretty stressed but,
I ain’t changing for some cash,
Lord knows that I’m very blessed (More chores),
But I gotta say it’s hard,
Workin’ outside gettin’ charred,
Living out here on the farm, (more chores)

One, here comes the two to the three to the four,
Tell em’ ‘buy another cow, we need plenty more’,
Blue jeans are gettin’ dirty, what else could I ask for,
Oh my, more chores

Someone pour me up another shot of sweet tea,
They know me and working hard’s got a history
There’s another 20 chickens that still need feed,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,

Everybody on the farm getting’ busy,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,

Fun, here on ranch that’s what you can’t ignore,
Might be pretty hard but I love it to its core,
Flannel’s gettin’ dirty, what else could I ask for,
Oh my, more chores (Tell ‘em sing with me)

Someone pour me up another shot of sweet tea,
They know me and working hard’s got a history,
There’s another flock of sheep that still needs feed,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,
Someone pour me up another shot of sweet tea,
They know me and working hard’s got a history,
Watching cattle in the dark, don’t miss me,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,
(Yeeeeeehaw)
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,
Everybody on the farm gettin’ busy,
It’s the best bro, go get yourself a farm