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Canola Crush Pace Slowing to Near Expectations

After initially holding up relatively well through the first few months of the 2021-22 crop year, the pace of the Canadian canola crush has now slowed to near expectations.

Statistics Canada on Thursday reported that domestic processors crushed 629,153 tonnes of canola in February, down from 651,282 in January and more than 168,000 tonnes or 21% below the same month a year earlier.

With the decline in February, the total crush so far in the 2021-22 crop year (August through February) amounted to 5.02 million tonnes, more than 1 million or 17.3% below the same period a year earlier. With supplies severely constrained by last year’s drought on the Prairies that slashed yields by about one-third, Agriculture Canada is projecting the full year 2021-22 canola crush at 8.5 million tonnes, a drop of 18% from 2020-21.

Through August, September and October, the crush was only running about 9% below the year earlier level. Since December, however, the crush pace slowed by nearly one-quarter compared to the same three months the previous year.

Canola oil production in February totalled 262,732 tonnes, down from 271,629 in January and 346,410 in February 2021. February Meal production came in 377,783 tonnes, versus 386,822 in January and 453,936 in the same month last year.

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Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts

Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:

Grain Price Decline Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.

Weather Impact and Forecast Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

US Crop Conditions Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.

Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington. Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.

Ongoing Developments Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.

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