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Canola Down with Soy Complex, Prairie Rains

Canola futures ended weaker on Thursday, with the nearby July contract down its $30/tonne daily limit and more modest declines in the more deferred months.

Traders bailing out of long positions accounted for the selling pressure in July, with most of the commercial attention now on the new-crop contracts. Domestic crushers and line companies are generally pricing off of the November contract, for both old- and new-crop business, due to the volatility in July.

Losses in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex and strength in the Canadian dollar contributed to the declines in canola. Widespread rains across Western Canada were also bearish for values. However, more precipitation will be needed going forward, with canola still looking relatively cheap given the tight supplies and solid demand projections.

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.