Canola Price Trend Still Pointed Higher

Nov 12, 2021

Even after hitting fresh contract highs in a number of months this week, canola futures may still have more upside ahead.

"The trend remains up," said analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro. "The price of canola needs to be put at a level that discourages exports, while the domestic crushers actively pursue attaining as much of the limited supply that we have this year.”

Short-term corrections in the market are always still possible as fund traders will book profits on their large net long positions from time-to-time. But as long as the energy sector continues to trend higher, it is difficult to envision canola will go into “any sustained downtrend," Jubinville said.

The Chicago soy complex also showed strength the past week, but Jubinville noted that canola's traditional relationship with soybeans and soyoil is out of balance. The traditional calculation for determining crush margins uses soyoil and soymeal as benchmarks. When looking from that perspective, canola crushers should be seeing negative margins. However, the actual canola oil premium over soyoil - which is not publicly reported - is at record levels, he said.

"So, the real crush margin that doesn't show up in a theoretical calculation is still profitable,” Jubinville said.

"I can't recall a time when canola and soybeans have been out of balance to this degree."

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Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.