Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays continues coverage of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Cattle Industry Convention in Nashville this week, featuring one of the event’s highlights - the CattleFax Outlook seminar. Given the price outlook for cattle, Kevin Good of the CattleFax staff says producers can expect to see this year’s market begin to stabilize from the volatility observed this past year.
“If we take the push from the last fall lows at $0.98 to this high so far this year at $1.23 average - a 24 to 25 percent increase. That would match the biggest increase we’ve ever had in like-kind of years,” Good said. “If we have not seen the high for this year in the last few weeks, seasonally, you would expect it to come back and retreat that at some point as we go into March…late February and March.”
Good notes, though, that the risk in the market will be more prevalent in the second half of the year as beef deals with increased supplies of its own product, but will also face increased competition from both pork and poultry as those supplies are expected to rise as well.
“If that’s the case,” he said, “feeder cattle would average $1.30. Remember that the deferred discounts and the live cattle will keep a lid on feeder cattle prices and you can see a full range at $1.20 - $1.40 around that.”
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