Will Robbins has been in the process of taking over his family farm southwest of Saskatoon.
The 43-year-old grows organic wheat, oats, lentils, peas and occasionally flax and mustard on 445 hectares of land near Laura, Sask.
In 1996, when he was still a teenager, prices in west-central Saskatchewan were on average $980 per hectare, according to Farm Credit Canada's historical farmland values report.
Last year, they were about $7,410 a hectare.
Robbins said the massive price increases, which noticeably began to skyrocket 13 years ago, has given him pause on whether expanding the farm is doable or practical.
“If you’re a risk-averse farmer and see other risks increasing, like climate instability, it’s harder to think through a massive increase in your debt loads to finance land given the land is not likely to pay for itself over 15 years or 20 years,” Robbins said in an interview.
“Land prices haven’t been the determining factor (for not expanding), but it’s definitely dissuasive.”
Farmland prices across the Prairies have grown for the past 20 years, but they took a marked jump in Saskatchewan in 2011 and have continued to see huge increases since then.
Prices in the province rose 15.7 per cent in 2023, the highest increase in Canada that year. A hectare sells on average for $6,670 to $16,060 depending on where it's located and whether it has irrigation. Values in Manitoba and Alberta also fall within that range or are higher in some cases.
Farmers and analysts say the situation has made it difficult for younger producers to expand their operations and compete with large farms, which have continued to get larger.
Leigh Anderson, an economist with Farm Credit Canada, said it has been a challenge because young farmers tend to not have many assets to finance the purchase of more land.
"It's harder for them to compete against a well-established farm or a farm that's been around for multiple generations," Anderson said.
"That asset base helps (big farms) expand because it's large enough for them to absorb another section of land."
He said increasing prices over the last several years are due to strong crop revenues. Supply is also tight, with many parcels being sold before they make it to public listing websites.
The issue is also double-edged. While some young farmers struggle to get a foothold, older producers looking to sell can reap the rewards of higher prices.
"For producers beginning to talk an exit strategy, it's encouraging to know their life's work is going to return a good value to them when they do retire," said Bill Prybylski, who farms in east-central Saskatchewan and is vice-president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan.
"It's both good and bad."
Prybylski operates on 4,450 hectares near Yorkton, Sask., growing canola, wheat, barley, oats, peas and lentils. He also has a cow-calf herd of 200 head. He said higher prices have been a mixed blessing: it's difficult to expand, but the operation now has additional financial leverage.
"If 10 years ago somebody told me we would be paying the prices we are now, I would have thought them to be somewhat ridiculous. But it’s the reality," he said. "Values have increased and we need to find ways to deal with it."
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