Farms.com Home   News

Difficult Choices for Canola Farmers Ahead

There are some difficult decisions in the months and weeks ahead for canola producers on the prairies.
 
Many are still dealing with the impact of the "harvest from hell". But ongoing trade issues, like the nearly 11-month-old ban of Canadian canola seed by China, is factoring into their seeding decisions in just a few short months.
 
That was one of the main topics on the first day of Farmtech in Edmonton, Tuesday. The Chairman of Alberta Canola, John Guelly says as the impact of this long dispute with one of our best-trading partners for canola drags on.
 
"The short story is there really isn't a lot of new news over the last few weeks. There were some people that went over to China, it doesn't sound like much has happened, but it is a good sign that someone did go. We really don't know any more than we have known before. It is a terrible situation.
 
"We had a speaker here this morning give some different insights into things and what can be done with the extradition hearing, but it is a very sensitive issue and we have to be careful of what we do. I do think that it is at the forefront of farmers minds of how much canola they seed this year. I hear of some pull back, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. We have a lot of tight rotations in the area, so backing off a few acres and lengthening those rotations is probably good for us in the long run," explained John Guelly.
Click here to see more...

Trending Video

Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.