Dry Pea Stocks Tighten on Larger 2023-24 Export Forecast

Apr 24, 2024

Agriculture Canada has lowered its already tight 2023-24 dry pea ending stocks estimate due to heavier export demand.

In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released last week, Ag Canada forecast dry pea ending stocks for the current marketing year at just 175,000 tonnes. That is down from the previous month’s forecast of 210,000 and is now roughly 65% below last year’s stocks of almost 500,000 tonnes.

If accurate, it would be the tightest dry pea ending stocks since 2015-16 when ending stocks slipped to 174,000 tonnes.

This month’s lower ending stocks estimate is due to a higher export forecast, which was revised up 100,000 tonnes to 2.5 million, near last year’s 2.563 million. However, at least some of the higher export projection was offset by lower domestic use, which fell to 511,000 tonnes from 576,000 in March.

In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said monthly exports of dry peas between August and February have been lower than the five-year average for every month, except December, January, and February. The rise in demand in those months can be attributed to tariff-free exports to India, it said.

Ag Canada also tightened its 2024-25 dry pea ending stocks forecast from last month, dropping it 50,000 tonnes to 190,000.

In addition to the smaller carryin from 2023-24, changes to the 2024-25 dry pea supply-demand picture also included a 100,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 2.5 million, as well as an 85,000-tonne reduction in expected domestic use to 515,000.

Ag Canada left its 2023-24 dry pea average price forecast unchanged from March at $460/tonne, but raised the 2024-25 projection by $25 to $400.

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Video: Turning Plant Defense Into a Management Strategy

Turning Plant Defense Into a Management Strategy

Understanding how a plant responds to stress is one thing.

Using that knowledge to make better management decisions is another.

Systemic acquired resistance, or SAR, is the plant's more direct defense response. When stress or infection occurs, the plant begins signaling throughout its system and preparing defensive compounds.

But if we know that response exists, can we help prepare the plant before the stress arrives?

The answer starts with understanding what triggers the response and what the plant needs to carry it out.

The Trigger and the Fuel

Salicylic acid plays an important role in triggering the SAR pathway.

Think of it as turning the truck on.

The engine may be running, but it still needs fuel to do the work.

In this case, manganese plays an important role in supporting the enzyme systems involved in the plant's defensive response.

This makes manganese status an important part of the conversation. Whether a producer is using tissue testing, sap analysis, or simply scouting for visible deficiency symptoms, the goal is to make sure the plant has adequate manganese available.

Manganese is required in relatively small amounts, but that does not make its role small.

If the plant receives a signal to defend itself but lacks the nutrition needed to support that response, it may struggle to carry out the process efficiently.

The trigger matters.

The fuel matters too.

Prepare Before the Stress Arrives

The best time to think about stress management is before the plant is overwhelmed.

Once a crop is already struggling, management can quickly turn into a game of catch-up.

This is similar to nitrogen management. Once a plant becomes severely deficient, correcting the problem does not necessarily erase the time and yield potential already lost.

Plant defense can work the same way.

Low-rate, targeted approaches designed to support the SAR pathway may fit best ahead of an expected stress event rather than after significant damage has already occurred.

That requires producers to think about predictable stress.

We may not know exactly what the weather will do tomorrow, but we generally know summer heat is coming. We know certain field conditions increase disease pressure. We know a herbicide application can temporarily stress a crop as the plant processes the chemistry.

Even a properly timed and labeled herbicide application can create a temporary response in the plant.

That does not mean the herbicide is bad.

Weeds can create significantly more yield loss than the temporary stress caused by controlling them.

The question is not whether we should eliminate every stressor.

The question is whether we can better prepare the plant to manage necessary and predictable stress.

Not All Stress Is Bad

Stress is a normal part of plant growth.

A perfectly stress-free environment does not exist in the field.

In fact, some stress is necessary for normal plant development. A plant responds to wind, temperature, moisture, sunlight, and countless other environmental signals throughout the season.

The environment is stress.

The plant's job is to manage it.

Problems begin when the stress load becomes greater than the plant's ability to respond.

Extreme heat, drought, high salt concentrations, disease pressure, and even certain management practices can add to that load.

This is where understanding SAR becomes useful.

Instead of waiting until the plant is visibly struggling, producers can begin identifying periods when stress is likely and make management decisions around those windows.

ISR Starts With the Soil

While SAR is a more direct defense response, induced systemic resistance, or ISR, brings the conversation back to soil health.

The longevity of a farm is closely connected to the health of its soil.

Carbon plays a major role because it supports biological life within the soil. Bacteria, fungi, and other organisms interact with plant roots and influence how the plant grows, accesses nutrients, and prepares for stress.

This is why soil health cannot be reduced to one product or one application.

It is a system.

Keeping living plants in the field longer can support biological activity. Cover crops may fit some operations. Better water management can improve soil conditions.