Last winter was unusually warm with significantly less snow than average. Current soil moisture and snowfall data are tracking lower than they were at this time last year.
Jeffrey Strock, a professor at the University of Minnesota Southwest Research and Outreach Center in Lamberton, Minnesota, provides expert commentary on moisture trends.
Jeffrey Strock, Ph.D.
“Two years ago, we measured 67.4 inches of snow with 5.4 inches of water equivalent at the Southwest Research and Outreach Center from October 1 through April 30. Last year was historically warm and dry, with only 22.5 inches of snow and 1.8 inches of water equivalent in the same time period. And we’re on track for another dry winter.
Though we only have data through the end of December, we’ve measured six inches of snow with a 1.6 inch water equivalent — notably close to the water equivalent during the entire winter last year.
We had less moisture than usual this fall, too. On November 15, 2024 there was about five inches of available water in the soil profile, which was slightly less than the historic average and 1.5 inches less than last year at the same time. This may alarm some, but the key factors to keep in mind for recharging the soil are the frost depth, water equivalent of the snow we get the rest of the winter, and spring warm-up and rain conditions.
It is really hard to predict how current weather conditions will affect this coming growing season, especially when we look at the variability in precipitation and temperature the last few years. If the current dry trend continues, there could be an early spring warm-up which could lead to farmers getting into the field earlier than normal. Although soil and weather conditions limit how early farmers can begin field operations, it is also important to remember that crop insurance planting date restrictions also play a role in when farmers can actually plant.”
Jeffrey Strock is a professor in the Department of Soil, Water & Climate and works at the Southwest Research and Outreach Center. His areas of interest include soil hydrology, water quality and fertility. His research and outreach activities focus on soil hydrology, agricultural drainage and nutrient management in agricultural systems.
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