Amid an upward revision in production, new-crop Canadian durum ending stocks could be poised to build to the highest level in four years.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Monday pegged 2024-25 durum ending stocks at 800,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from the June estimate and more than double the 2023-24 stocks projection of 350,000. If accurate, it would be the heaviest durum ending stocks since 2020-21 at 813,000 tonnes.
This month’s increase in the stocks estimate is due to a larger 2024 production estimate of 6.3 million tonnes, up 645,000 from June and almost 56% above last year’s crop of 4.045 million.
Projected durum harvested area for this year is unchanged from last month at 6.21 million acres – an increase of 6% on the year. However, Ag Canada raised its average yield estimate to 37.2 bu/acre from 33.5 bu, pushing the production estimate higher.
“At the time of writing, development is faring well with 93% of the crop in Saskatchewan and 79% in Alberta being rated in good to excellent condition,” Ag Canada said in its accompanying commentary.
Ag Canada offset some of the larger production estimate with higher demand estimates from last month, including a 300,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 4.8 million, up sharply from just 3.3 million in 2023-24. Total expected domestic use was bumped higher as well, up to 1.075 million tonnes from 830,000 in June.
At $350/tonne, the average expected 2024-25 durum price forecast was steady from last month but down from $430 in 2023-24.
In other changes this month, Ag Canada revised up its wheat (excl durum) production estimate to 29.128 million tonnes from 28.937 million in June. Although harvested area was lowered slightly to 19.99 million acres from 20.28 million last month, Ag Canada revised its average yield estimate higher, more than offsetting the cut in area.
The additional wheat (excl durum) production was blunted by a 50,000-tonne increase in the export forecast, to 20.55 million tonnes, while domestic use was raised to 8.603 million tonnes from 8.462 million. At 2.45 million tonnes, wheat (excl durum) ending stocks for 2024-25 were steady from last month.
At $330/tonne, the average expected wheat (excl durum) price is down $5 from last month but up from $325 in 2023-24.
Source : Syngenta.ca