Essex County, Ont., farmers hope for 'million-dollar rain' as region sees driest May since 1870

May 31, 2023

Farmers in Essex County, Ont. are hoping for a "million-dollar rain" as the region faces its driest month of May on record in more than 150 years.

Peter Kimbell, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada, says the area has only seen 23 millimetres of rain this month.

"April was pretty wet, but not May," he said.

"If you go back all the way back to the 1800s, 1870 had an equivalent low amount of rain, 23 millimetres."

Environment Canada forecasts show a week of hot, sunny weather for Windsor and Essex County, with temperatures hovering between 28 and 30 degrees for much of the week. There's a chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday, when temperatures are expected to rise to 31 degrees.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.