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EU likely in market for Canadian durum

WESTERN PRODUCER — The European Union can be added to the list of traditional customers that are going to require ample supplies of durum in 2022-23.

The European Commission is forecasting 7.5 million tonnes of production for the region, which isn’t bad but is below average.

The EU is beginning the year with a paltry 500,000 tonnes of carry-in and will finish with an abysmal 100,000 tonnes of carryout, according to the EC. That is a fraction of the usual carryout of around two million tonnes.

“I don’t think they can carry out that little amount of durum,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.

He noted the EC’s production estimate was made on March 15. Since then, serious dryness has developed in Spain and France.

“I think they’re in trouble, especially given the heat that region has had this past couple of weeks,” he said.

Conditions are better in other major durum growing regions like Sicily, southern Italy and Greece.

Burnett believes the final production number will dip below 7.5 million tonnes, which will make the balance sheet even tighter.

Source : Sask Today

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Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts

Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:

Grain Price Decline Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.

Weather Impact and Forecast Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

US Crop Conditions Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.

Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington. Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.

Ongoing Developments Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.

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