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FAO Forecasting Tool Expands Its Range of Crops to Include Alfalfa

AquaCrop is the crop growth simulation model created by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Playing an essential role in its development was Elías Fereres, a Professor Emeritus in the María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence at the University of Cordoba’s Department of Agronomy (DAUCO). This model, which after almost 20 years of life is the second most used in the world in research, allows simulating the response of crop yields according to climate, soil and irrigation management, something very important in areas where water is a limiting factor in production.

Until now, this model only allowed user the ability to simulatethe yield of annual crops (herbaceous crops with annual cycles), but not perennial crops. This has changedthanks to new work by the DAUCO and IAS - CSIC, which includes the simulation of alfalfa in AquaCrop, offeringvalid crop yield predictionsfor different climates and zones.
Alfalfa is a perennial forage crop that lasts 3 to 5 years in Mediterranean climates, and is cut several times each year,as it resproutsagain (4 to 8 cuts per year). To model the life cycle of this crop and to be able to predict harvests "there were two main challenges in the simulation, which were these periodic cuttings and resprouting during the same season, and the fact that alfalfa, as a perennial crop, stores reserves in autumn and uses them in spring to grow, so growth in spring is not only determined by photosynthesis, but also by these reserves that the plant stores," explained Professor Fereres.

Therefore, it was necessary to include in the model a routine describing both the transfer of photoassimilatesbetween the aerial part and the underground storage organs, and the plant's use of these assimilates for growth.
Yield data collected in Belgium, Turkey and Canada for different alfalfa cultivars, various years, and different field and irrigation management strategies, wasused to calibrate the model. 81 yield data points across different climates, varieties, zones, and irrigation schedules were used to verify this model, which constitutes a robust tool for predicting alfalfa production in different environments.

"The results were very good after this verification.We were able to simulate the performance with very good correlations between the simulated and the real data obtained," Fereresreported, since no systematic overestimation or underestimation was detected by the model.
AquaCrop's future challenges

By introducing the variables of crop, climate, soil and irrigation management (whether there is water or not and, if there is, how irrigation is distributed) it is possible to simulate the maximum yield that might be obtained in each case. In this way, irrigation can be adapted to optimize management for greater production.

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Western Canadian Agriculture: Hard Times Made the World's Best Farmers

Video: Western Canadian Agriculture: Hard Times Made the World's Best Farmers

Western Canadian agriculture produced the most advanced farmers in the world not through abundance but through adversity. The crow rate fell. The wheat price went nowhere. The brown envelopes stopped.

When the subsidies disappeared, the bad farmers left and the good ones stayed. And the ones who stayed could not just grow wheat anymore. They started growing lentils and canola and peas and flax and faba beans. They built crop rotation. They got serious about agronomy because there was no government backstop. That process produced the Western Canadian agriculture Dennis Bulani describes in this clip: the most advanced, most educated farming culture in the world.

His contrast with Iowa corn and soybean farmers is sharp. At a DeKalb farmer meeting in Okoboji, Iowa, he asked what crop rotation they ran. Beans on corn stubble, corn on bean stubble. How do you fertilize? The co-op agronomist handles it. Have you considered other crops? No need. We make so much money on corn and soybeans. Western Canadian agriculture was never allowed that comfort. And now those Iowa farmers are watching soybean markets lock up with China and corn prices slide, and they do not have the agronomy knowledge or the research base to pivot. Western Canadian farmers adapted on a dime because they had done it before.

Dennis also makes the case that Western Canadian agriculture keeps adapting in real time. Low commodity prices over the past year have pushed growers to look seriously at precision spot-spray technology. He knows a neighbor who bought a sprayer with the seeing-eye system and sprayed only 80 out of 320 acres. As a chemical retailer Dennis acknowledges that will affect his sales. He supports it anyway, because if it advances Canadian agriculture and makes farmers money, that is a good outcome.

The lesson Dennis draws from the tale of two farms: continuous improvement is the only durable strategy. When canola was $22 a bushel some growers went to Arizona instead of the Crop Production Show. When the price came down those same growers came back to the research and the discipline. Products do not go on Rack Petroleum's shelves unless they pass a replicated trial first. That is what Western Canadian agriculture built through hard times: farmers who do the work whether the times demand it or not.

Dennis Bulani is CEO of Rack Petroleum and Ultimate Yield in Biggar, Saskatchewan. Dan Aberhart hosts GTF Productions, Western Canadian Agriculture's foremost live briefing platform and its foremost AI training platform for ag operators