Farm Credit Canada spring wheat and durum forecast is included in the 2023 Grains, Oilseeds and Pulse Outlook.
Justin Shepherd a Senior Economist with FCC expects to see an increase in spring wheat.
"Globally we are in a fairly tight stocks-to-use ratio for wheat., and we are in a fairly tight ratio when it looks at high protein wheat. There is a lot of lower protein wheat, which can go into feed or food rations in the world, but there's only so much high protein. Western Canada looks like it has some pretty solid protein numbers this year, and that wheat will be in demand globally as we blend it with lower protein."
He notes we're also seeing some stronger bids coming in for durum.
Shepherd says the unknown factor in durum right now is that Turkey has been exporting a larger-than-expected volume of durum and that is really putting a cap on where durum prices can go.
He points out that at some point the global market will have to switch back to Canadian durum and it will start to move globally again.
Dry conditions in many areas of Western Canada once again impacted producer yields, however not as badly as in 2021.
Some other marketing notes in the report show we're seeing slightly weaker prices for canola as compared to last year, but still well above the five-year average
He says it means there is going to be larger volatility around prices.
"At the higher level of prices we tend to see higher daily swings in commodity prices and canola really exemplifies that."
When it comes down to the pulse outlook - peas and lentils - prices are expected to come down from last year but remain well above the five year average.
Shepherd says overall Canadian peas and lentils are still in demand in global markets.
FCC 's 2023 Grains, Oilseeds and Pulse Outlook ican be found here.
Source : Pembinavalley online