The 11th annual edition of Canada’s Food Price Report forecasts an overall food price increase of 3 to 5% for 2021. The most significant increases are predicted for meat at 4.5 to 6.5%, bakery at 3.5 to 5.5%, and vegetables at 4.5 to 6.5%.
“Families with less means will be significantly challenged in 2021, and many will be left behind,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, project lead and Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University. “Immunity to higher food prices requires more cooking, more discipline and more research. It’s as simple as that.”
The COVID-19 pandemic led to border and facility closures, shifting consumer demand and unemployment, as well as modifications in production, manufacturing, distribution and retailing practices to enhance safety — all of which impacted food prices. An oil price war and the devaluation of the Canadian dollar were also significant factors.
Dr. Simon Somogyi, project co-lead and Arrell Chair in the Business of Food at the University of Guelph, was most surprised by the increase in the price of vegetables.
“Health Canada wants us to eat more vegetables and that’s going to be harder," he said. "Hopefully when the Canadian growing season comes online in summer 2021, prices will soften and more families will have access. When folks go to the grocery store, they should have a look in the frozen food aisle, particularly for peas, broccoli, carrots and corn. Frozen vegetables are snap frozen just after harvest, so their nutrients are locked in. They can be just as nutritious as fresh vegetables, but at a lower price.”
For the first time, the report is a cross-country collaboration, jointly released by long-time research partners Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph, as well as the University of Saskatchewan and the University of British Columbia.
This year’s report also takes into account the diversity of Canadian families by calculating average food expenditure by individual consumer based on age and gender, rather than for an ‘average’ Canadian family. For example, based on a family including a man (age 31-50), woman (age 31-50), boy (age 14-18) and girl (age 9-13), the annual food expenditure is predicted to be $13,907 in 2021, an increase of up to $695 (5%) compared to 2020.
Last year’s report predicted the average Canadian family would spend up to $12,667 on food in 2020. Based on the 2020 inflation rate to date, this figure is likely to be closer to $12,508, largely because consumers ate at restaurants less frequently.
“The COVID-19 pandemic will potentially have long-lasting effects on Canadians' relationship to food,” explained Alyssa Gerhardt, a PhD Student in the Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology at Dalhousie University who worked on the project. “We've seen more demand for online services in both food retail and food service, an increase in Canadians gardening and preparing meals at home and renewed interest in local food supply chains.”
Food price factors to watch for in 2021 include the continued impact of COVID-19, the effects of climate change, the growth in e-commerce and online services, the continued loss of the food manufacturing sector, the national ban on some single-use plastics and the impact of the U.S. presidential election on food policy and the Canadian dollar.
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