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Grain and Milk Markets Present Challenges for Farmers in 2019

By Paul Gross
 
 
Milk and grain marketing series offers strategies to optimize farm profitability.
 
Commodity price outlook for 2019 continues to be gloomy for corn, soybeans and wheat as harvest wraps up across Michigan. Dairy stocks are continuing to build heading into the end of this year. The 2018 season was bad and it appears 2019 will be more of the same. Land rental rates, trade and tariffs, and input costs rising all contribute to the challenges facing farmers.
 
Historically, farm input costs adjust to the changes in commodity prices, but this tends to occur over a longer period of time. Farms need to make adjustments in their cost of production budgets as well as the marketing plans to survive until commodity prices improve, allowing the farm to generate positive returns.
 
To assist farmers making marketing decisions, a Milk and Grain Marketing Series will be held starting Dec. 18, 2018, and meet quarterly in 2019 on March 19, June 18 and Sept. 17. Fred Hinkley, Michigan State University Extension educator emeritus and marketing specialist, will provide insight and outlook on the milk and grain markets and suggest strategies to minimize financial risk.
 
Agriculture markets are more volatile than ever. For most farms, profits are largely determined by how well you market your production. Now more than ever your farm’s future success depends on your ability to understand the markets and use the basic marketing tools.
 
The meetings will be at the Isabella County Building Room 320, 200 N. Main Street, Mt. Pleasant, MI 48858, from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. The cost for attending these meetings will be $400 per farm. This will cover all four meetings and will not limit the number from each farm/agribusiness that may attend.
 
Pre-registration is encouraged by Dec. 15. You can register for the program online at Milk and Grain Marketing Series 2018-2019.
 

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.